Una predicción clavada

De artículos advirtiendo de los graves problemas que podría provocar una moneda única en una comunidad de países con economías y políticas diferentes y desiguales hubo muchos, pero el tsunami de la euforia europeísta lo ahogó todo. Ahora me he topado con un artículo publicado por Financial Times el 20 de febrero de 1978 que predice, punto por punto, la crisis que actualmente está sufriendo España.

Suppose a country, which we arbitrarily call Spain, experiences a boom which is stronger than in the rest of the euro-area. As a result of the boom, output and prices grow faster in Spain than in the other euro-countries. This also leads to a real estate boom and a general asset inflation in Spain. Since the ECB looks at euro-wide data, it cannot do anything to restrain the booming conditions in Spain. In fact the existence of a monetary union is likely to intensify the asset inflation in Spain. Unhindered by exchange risk vast amounts of capital are attracted from the rest of the euro-area. Spanish banks that still dominate the Spanish markets, are pulled into the game and increase their lending. They are driven by the high rates of return produced by ever increasing Spanish asset prices, and by the fact that in a monetary union, they can borrow funds at the same interest rate as banks in Germany, France etc. After the boom comes the bust. Asset prices collapse, creating a crisis in the Spanish banking system.