Adiós a Nihil Obstat | Hola a The Catalán Analyst

Después de 13 años de escribir en este blog prácticamente sin interrupción, hoy lo doy por clausurado. Esto no quiere decir que me haya jubilado de la red, sino que he pasado el relevo a otro blog que sigue la misma línea de Nihil Obstat. Se trata del blog The Catalán Analyst y de la cuenta de Twitter del mismo nombre: @CatalanAnalyst . Os los recomiendo.

Muchas gracias a todos por haberme seguido con tanta fidelidad durante todos estos años.

martes, 3 de enero de 2012

El final de una ilusión

Armin Mahler (Der Sipegel):
Proponents of this kind of union fantasize that the crisis will give rise to an opportunity. They believe that now, in the hour of need, the pressure to act is big enough to push through the integration of Europe that has previously always failed because of national self-interest.

But they might be deceiving themselves once again. The parliaments of the EU member states would have to approve any far-reaching amendments to the union's treaties. What's more, in many cases, this would also involve changing national constitutions and holding referendums. Such a process is protracted, and its outcome is anyone's guess.

The alternative would be returning to how things were originally, meaning at the birth of the currency union. As happened then, euro-zone members would pledge to maintain stability (which admittedly already failed once before, because the rules were overridden when push came to shove). In this case, there would be no permanent transfers and also no collectivization of debts.

In the end, the currency union will shrink. Greece and possibly even other countries will have to abandon the euro in order to be able to get back on their feet with the help of their own, significantly devalued, currency.

The euro saviors and their citizens must finally face the uncomfortable truth. Under current conditions, the euro will fail economically because the differences between euro-zone countries are too great.

But new conditions that would give the euro a firm economic foundation are almost impossible to implement due to political factors. In any case, they can definitely not be put in place quickly enough to combat the current crisis.

Indeed, the would-be euro saviors are suffering from yet another delusion: that they are able to buy all the time they need, without any limits.